Strategic Reframing by Rafael Ramirez & Angela Wilkinson

Author:Rafael Ramirez & Angela Wilkinson
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9780198745693
Publisher: OUP Oxford
Published: 2016-02-29T16:00:00+00:00

Methodology

In Chapter 3, we outlined our views on methods for reframing and reperception, explaining that methods are chosen because they articulate and reflect a methodology, which in turn manifests the epistemological stance of how scenario planning supports the scenario learner. This methodology plays an important role in making knowledge generation and knowledge acquisition work, in terms of the desired rigor and usefulness.

Various typologies have been proposed to classify scenario planning methods. For instance, van Notten et al. (2003) differentiated methods according to purpose (exploratory, decision support, etc.), and Wilkinson and Eidinow (2008) classified methods according to their epistemological assumptions and learning purpose. Ramírez and Selin (2014) proposed a three-dimensional typology, consisting of a 2 × 2 × 2 matrix in which the axes reflect: (1) whether quantitative or qualitative techniques are favored; (2) whether plausibility or probability is used to guide the assessment of the scenarios; and (3) whether there is a stronger preference for scientific or artistic methods. Others have suggested that such either/or distinctions are false or can be bridged; for example, “quantitative–qualitative” divides can be bridged by explicitly relating scenario narratives with model-based simulations and quantification (Alcamo and Henrichs 2008; Wilkinson and Kupers 2014). Volkery and Ribeiro (2009) noted the importance of attending to the culture (e.g. national, professional) of the scenario learners. All typologies seek to ascertain which methods work well.

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